Guessing the Odds: Teen Circumnavigators

Guessing the Odds on a Teen Circumnavigation

 

Much discussion has resulted from the recent successful circumnavigations of two teens and the publicity given to a few young women who hope to become the youngest sailor to circle the globe solo, non-stop, and unassisted. Much in the sailing news are Jessica Watson of Australia, whose boat was damaged recently in an encounter with a container ship; Abby Sunderland, who is a member of a sailing family and younger sister of successful solo circumnavigator Zac; and thirteen-year-old New Zealand-born Laura Dekker of the Netherlands, whose authorities have stepped in to put her planned voyage on hold. Some critics severely question the safety of allowing a young teen to challenge the record or even suggest that discussion of the topic might encourage reckless behavior by fanning the flames of publicity.

Many outcomes can happen for a sailor who sets out to complete the so-called "Mount Everest" of sailing, an unassisted non-stop solo circumnavigation of our planet via the Southern Ocean Route. I've grouped them into three categories labeled as "success" (more or less), "failure", and "catastrophe".

 

1. Success …. "Mas o menos" – more or less

The circumnavigator succeeds at some level by circling the globe.

Perhaps it is a completely successful unassisted solo, non-stop, circumnavigation.

Or perhaps it turns out that some assistance is needed, or the solo sailor has to come into a port for repairs, provisions, or healing.

Or perhaps a parent, friend, or crew member has to come on board to help out, or maybe even a love interest enters the scene and the solo sail becomes a dual effort.

At least, the sailor becomes a circumnavigator of some sort or other.

 

2(a). Routine Failures

Most attempts at the unassisted solo, non-stop southern ocean jaunt probably don't even succeed at one of the alternative levels described above. The trip may be too rough or hard on the boat, forcing the sailor to cut short the attempt or take the easier Panama and Suez canal route. Although very unlikely on the Southern Ocean route, encounters with pirates are theoretically possible. Perhaps the sailor wearies of the voyage or decides that other things in life are more important. Minor injuries, seasickness, fatigue, headaches, borderline depression, or plain old loneliness could combine with other stresses to convince the would-be soloist to look elsewhere for gratification.

Maybe the boat is unsuitable or has lots of annoying bad habits or small failures, turning the voyage into a living hell. Maybe the boat has major failures that doom the trip or endanger the sailor's safety. It could be too expensive to repair or restock the boat or pay for necessary medical care. The sailor could be not cut out for solo life or could just start to go plumb crazy for a while. Or, the sailor could become seriously enough injured to abort the trip or perhaps even require rescue.

Accidental encounters with knockdowns, capsize, rolls, storm damage, boarding or breaking waves, waterspouts, lurking rocks or reefs, icebergs or growlers; containers, logs, whales, or larger vessels could severely damage or sink the sailor's temporary home. Unlit fishing vessels or smugglers could collide with the boat or the circumnavigator could be run down by a large ship that never sees her boat. And, the chances of collision increase for less experienced or less fit circumnavigators who lack good watchkeeping skills or knowledge, judgment, and seamanship to use equipment properly and to act properly to prevent collision.

In particular, it appears that the marine authorities in Queensland, Australia have questioned would-be circumnavigator Jessica Watson's watchkeeping ability in the wake of her Pink Lady's collision with a large ship on Jessica's maiden overnight test voyage.

Even the routine wear and tear of the world's longest ocean voyage could cause enough damage to scuttle the voyage, if not the ship and sailor. The sea is quite capable of finding the weak points in a vessel's design and construction. The maritime environment is unforgiving of bad installations or poor systems and is sure to seek out the weakest link – whether that might be hull integrity, keel attachment, steering gear, some fine detail of rigging, or otherwise.

 

Norteňo

2(b) or not to be: Sharks in Suits: Legal Action

One special oddball category of failures is labeled "legal action". A sailor always faces the risk of being boarded by government authorities and having cargo or a vessel impounded if the authorities find something they don't like. In port, sailors are vulnerable to arrest and detention for misbehavior or maybe for just being in the wrong place at the wrong time. Authorities may also decide that a damaged boat or injured solo sailor is unsafe and may order or tow a boat into port and order the voyage be terminated until certain conditions are met.

With would-be teen circumnavigators, a new category of legal action emerges: the threat of the teen being taken into protective custody and not being allowed to begin or continue a voyage. The teen and her or his family might attempt to begin the voyage in a more lenient jurisdiction, but it's possible that authorities in the teen's home jurisdiction or in one that the voyage passes near would nonetheless intervene.

Government intervention is likely for young teens, dominating the odds in any estimated computation of outcomes. So, I've prepared versions of the tables with this factor as well as without, so one could see what the roughly estimated odds of success would be _ if _ the teen's voyage were not to be prevented or interrupted by some government.

 

3. Catastrophic Failure

Worst of all are failures even more catastrophic than the setbacks described above, ones which could cripple or kill a sailor. Some of the hazards are the same as those encountered on land but may be more dangerous simply because the solo sailor has nobody nearby to help and can be thousands of miles from medical personnel and the nearest hospital.

The sailor could die because of an allergic reaction, heart attack, stroke, serious untreated infection of an otherwise minor wound. The sailor might be incapacitated by a severe epileptic seizure. A diabetic sailor who fails to manage blood sugar levels because of other stresses might be incapacitated. Rescuers may be unable to reach the boat in time or at all and the sailor could be incapacitated before being able to call for help.

Of course, these hazards could also be fatal on land and many land hazards are absent for the long-haul sailor. One is unlikely to catch the flu or have a motorcycle accident alone at sea hundreds of miles from land. And, while lightning is likely to strike a boat, a properly designed rig will most likely protect the sailor even if the boat's electronics are toasted.

The marine environment has its own unique hazards not found on land. Separation of the boat and sailor is perhaps the greatest danger for the solo sailor; a careless slip, a fall from the rigging, a boarding wave, a capsize, a swinging boom or flogging sail, an abrupt maneuver, or the failure of harness or jack lines could leave the sailor in the drink with no one to rescue her or him. Even if the lifeline holds and the sailor has a chance to re-board the boat, cold shock immersion, hypothermia, and shock have an opportunity to do their worst.

The sailor could be slammed into the boat by a wave or hit by a boom during a jibe (gybe) or fall from the rigging and hit the deck. A knockdown, capsize, or roll could slam an unsuspecting sailor against something in the boat's interior. A crushing blow, rig failure, or encounter with highly loaded lines could break bones or mangle fingers. And, anything that causes the boat to sink, such as an encounter with an iceberg or semi-submerged container, could leave the sailor in a very bad place. Much less likely causes of death or disability might include encounters with critters such as marine life (jellyfish tentacles, bites from fish, etc.), or pirates (actually much less likely than running into thugs on land).

 

 

Roughly Estimated Outcome Probabilities for a Solo, Non-Assisted, Non-Stop Circumnavigation of Planet Earth (Eastbound) via the Great Capes of the Southern Ocean
According to Level of Preparation of Sailor and Vessel

 

It is assumed that the passage is timed so that the great southern ocean capes, particularly the Horn, are passed in the Austral summer and that the passage is a west-to-east circumnavigation from the temperature northern latitudes to the southern ocean and via the Great Capes of South America, Africa, Australia, and New Zealand.

The numbers before are only crude estimates and are not based upon any actuarial or statistical tables, so they are only a rough guide for discussion and for highlighting some of the odds of success or danger. Also, the circumstances of solo and other circumnavigations vary so much and the number of solo circumnavigators is still relatively small, so it's quite pointless to debate exact numerical assignments of risk. The numbers have no exact foundation; they are useful or important only in a relative sense.

In order to create statistically valid underlying data for the tables, some authority would have to accurately assess the readiness levels of hundreds of teen would-be circumnavigators and send them out to circle the planet. Obviously, that's not going to happen! So, we have to rely upon news reports of circumnavigation and general blue water sailing successes and failures, then use judgment, intuition, and analogies with land-based actuarial experience to come up with numbers that would be remotely defensible or at least modestly plausible. For now, the numbers are frighteningly close to something derived by PFA analysis methods. *

*PFA: Plucked from the air.

Some of the outcome categories could overlap; the tabulation assumes that only the most severe outcome would be tallied in the event of a failure or catastrophe.

As a reminder, the numbers given are for a very difficult circumnavigation, the unassisted non-stop solo voyage (eastbound) from a temperate latitude origin via the Southern Ocean, timed to pass Cape Horn during the austral summer. Different and generally more favorable odds would obviously apply for other circumnavigations.

 

Definitions and expanded examples of outcomes:

Success is defined as completing some form of circumnavigation via the southern ocean route.

Failure is defined as abandonment of the attempt

Catastrophe is defined as death or major disability

 

Definitions of successes:

Full success – accomplish non-assisted, non-stop solo circumnavigation

Success with assist and or stop – solo circumnavigation but not non-stop or unassisted

Success with major re-start and/or new boat (delayed completion) – a long stop of 60 days to one year for significant repairs, financial or health recovery, purchase of a new or replacement boat, additional maturity

Non-solo completion – a portion or the final portion of the voyage was completed non-solo

 

Definitions of failures:

Legal action – voyage termination, arrest, detention, seizure, protective custody

Change of priorities, includes personal or financial issues, boat unsuitable, minor breakdowns

Major vessel system failures – failure of rig, steering, communications, deck or hull integrity, hull damage

 

Definitions of catastrophes:

Major, long-term (year or longer) or permanent disability comprises significant loss of hearing, eyesight, or a limb or digits or their use, or severe disabling pain, brain injury, severe mental disorder, severe disfigurements covering large areas, or other long-term conditions severely impacting activity required for normal everyday living.

Death, non-maritime – allergies, strokes, heart attacks, seizures and other occurrences that could occur upon land; severity may be exacerbated by fatigue, lack of professional emergency response, etc., but death is not primarily caused by the maritime environment.

Death, maritime – deaths primarily caused by unique features of maritime environment; drowning, immersion cold shock, disappearance, strike by boom, fall from rigging, death resulted from being washed overboard or capsized,

 

Levels of preparation

Levels of preparation are described in a prior post. To summarize them,

"A" level preparation represents thorough, professional preparation by a superbly conditioned athlete with a strong supporting team and the best possible equipment and training. Anyone who can achieve this level of preparation belongs on Neptune's ocean, far from mere mortal landlubbers.

"B" level is thorough, well-above average preparation with excellent training and equipment.

"C" level represents generally adequate training and preparation for long-distance voyaging.

"D" level preparation has significant deficiencies for a voyage of this scope.

"F" level is landlubberly and manifestly unsafe and inadequate.

 

 

Percentages for "A" Level Preparation

 

Outcome vs. Age	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	21	30	70
Successes:
Full success	0.40	1.15	1.95	4.0	9.0	21.0	24.0	35.0	42.0	48.0	30.0
Success with assist	0.24	0.50	0.73	1.25	2.9	2.4	2.2	1.61	1.45	1.28	2.85
" " w stop &/or assist	0.48	1.0	1.8	3.0	3.33	4.4	4.7	4.5	4.22	4.0	6.0
Success with re-start	.052	1.0	1.6	2.75	4.2	4.5	5.1	4.6	3.5	3.5	5.7
Non-solo completion	0.83	1.39	1.0	1.0	0.84	0.9	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.1	1.53
Subtotal, percent	2.5	5.0	7.1	12.0	20.3	33.3	37.0	46.7	52.2	57.8	46.1
Failures:
Legal action/arrest	75	60	48	33	18	12.5	6.7	3.9	2.4	1.4	1.8
Change of priorities…	6.9	11.8	15.8	19.8	23.5	18	20	15.5	13.7	11.1	11.8
Major boat failures	4.0	6.0	8.1	10.0	11.8	11.8	12.33	11.0	11.3	11.3	13.5
Loss of vessel	3.8	5.5	6.7	7.8	8.7`	8.63	8.8	8.4	7.8	7.2	9.2
Injury, illness, ….	7.1	10.6	13.0	15.9	16.0	14.0	13.5	13.0	11.2	9.9	15.1
Subtotal, percent	96.8	93.9	91.6	86.5	78.0	64.9	61.3	51.8	46.4	40.9	51.4
Catastrophes:
Major disability	0.28	0.38	0.47	0.58	0.7	0.72	0.67	0.59	0.58	0.57	0.97
Death, non-maritime	0.10	0.15	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.70
Death, maritime	0.35	0.53	0.65	0.72	0.83	0.85	0.80	0.70	0.65	0.55	0.85
Subtotal, percent	0.7	1.1	1.3	1.5	1.7	1.8	1.7	1.5	1.4	1.3	2.5
success: catastrophe	77:23	83:17	84:16	89:11	92:08	95:05	96:04	97:03	97:03	98:02	95:05

 

 

Percentages for "A" Level Preparation Excluding Possibility of Legal Action

 

This table shows the relative odds of success or failure if it is assumed that no government interference occurs to terminate the sailor's voyage.

 

Outcome vs. Age	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	21	30	70
Successes:
Full success	1.7	2.9	3.8	6.0	11.0	24.0	25.7	36.4	43.0	48.7	30.6
success with assist	1.0	1.3	1.4	1.9	3.5	2.9	2.4	1.7	1.5	1.3	2.9
" " w stop &/or assist	1.9	2.5	3.5	4.5	4.1	5.0	5.0	4.7	4.3	4.1	6.1
Success, re-start	2.1	2.5	3.1	4.1	5.1	.5.1	5.5	4.8	3.6	3.6	5.8
Non-solo completion	3.3	3.5	1.9	1.5	1.0	1.0	1.1	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.6
subtotal	9.9%	12.6%	13.6%	19.9%	24.7%	38.1%	39.7%	48.6%	53.5%	48.6%	46.92%
Failures:
Change of priorities…	27.6	29.5	30.4	29.6	28.7	20.6	21.4	16.1	14.0	11.3	12.0
Major boat failures	16.0	15.0	15.6	14.9	14.4	13.5	13.2	11.5	11.6	11.5	13.8
Loss of vessel	15.2	13.8	12.9	11.6	10.6	9.9	9.4	9.7	8.0	7.3	9.4
Injury, illness, …	28.4	26.5	25.0	23.73	19.5	16.0	14.5	13.5	11.5	10.0	15.4
subtotal	87.2%	84.8%	83.8%	79.9%	73.2%	59.9%	58.6%	49.8%	45.1%	40.1%	50.5%
Catastrophes:
Major disability	1.12	0.95	0.90	0.87	0.85	0.82	0.72	.061	0.69	0.58	0.99
Death, non-maritime	0.40	0.38	0.38	0.30	0.24	0.23	0.21	0.21	0.20	0.20	0.71
Death, maritime	1.40	1.33	1.25	1.07	1.01	0.97	0.86	0.73	0.67	0.56	0.87
subtotal	2.9%	2.7%	2.5%	2.2%	2.1%	2.0%	1.8%	1.6%	1.5%	1.3%	2.6%
success: catastrophe	77:23	83:17	84:16	89:11	92:08	95:05	96:04	97:03	97:03	98:03	95:05

 

 

 

Percentages for "B" Level Preparation

 

"B" level is thorough, well-above-average preparation with excellent training and equipment for long-duration voyages in extreme conditions.

 

Outcome vs. Age	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	21	30	70
Successes:
Full success	0.18	0.35	1.0	3.2	6.9	15.0	21.0	28.0	40.0	45.0	28.0
success with assist	0.10	0.35	0.55	0.75	2.7	3.0	3.0	2.8	1.8	1.5	3.0
" " w stop &/or assist	0.18	0.60	1.35	2.8	3.64	5.0	5.0	5.0	4.5	4.4	6.5
Success, major re-start	0.25	0.67	1.4	2.7	4.2	5.25	5.0	4.85	4.0	3.8	6.0
Non-solo completion	0.40	0.50	0.60	0.70	0.80	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.5
subtotal	1.1	2.5	4.9	10.2	18.2	29.3	35.0	41.7	51.3	55.7	45.0
Failures:
Legal action/arrest	80.0	65.0	50.0	36.0	20.0	13.5	7.0	4.0	2.5	1.5	2.0
Change of priorities…	6.15	11.0	15.8	18.5	23.0	18.7	21.0	17.9	13.2	12.0	12.3
Major vessel failures	3.6	6.0	8.2	10.1	12.0	12.5	12.2	12.0	12.0	12.0	13.5
Loss of vessel	3.3	5.5	7.1	8.0	9.0	9.5	9.2	9.0	8.0	7.4	9.5
Injury, illness, …	5.2	9.0	12.8	15.8	16.0	14.8	14.0	14.0	11.5	10.0	15.1
subtotal	98.3	96.5	93.8	88.3	80.0	69.0	63.3	56.9	47.2	42.9	52.4
Catastrophes:
Major disability	0.24	0.36	0.48	0.59	0.71	0.72	0.7	0.6	0.6	0.6	1.0
Death, non-maritime	0.10	0.15	0.20	0.20	0.20	0.20	0.20	0.20	0.20	0.20	0.70
Death, maritime	0.35	0.52	0.65	0.75	0.85	0.80	0.70	0.70	0.70	0.60	0.90
subtotal	0.7	1.0	1.3	1.5	1.8	1.8	1.7	1.5	1.5	1.4	2.6
success: catastrophe	62:38	71:29	79:21	87:13	91:09	94:06	95:05	97:03	97:03	98:02	95:05

 

 

Percentages for "B" Level Preparation Excluding Possibility of Legal Action

 

Outcome vs. Age	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	21	30	70
Successes:
Full success	0.90	1.0	2.0	5.0	8.6	17.3	22.6	29.2	41.0	45.7	28.6
success with assist	0.5	1.0	1.1	1.2	3.4	3.5	3.2	2.9	1.9	1.5	3.1
" " w stop &/or assist	0.9	1.7	2.7	4.4	4.6	5.8	5.4	5.2	4.6	4.5	6.6
Success with major re-start and/or new boat	1.3	1.9	2.8	4.2	5.3	6.1	5.4	5.1	4.1	3.9	6.1
Non-solo completion	2.0	1.4	1.2	1.1	1.0	1.2	1.1	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.5
subtotal	5.6%	7.1%	9.8%	15.9%	22.8%	33.8%	37.6%	43.4%	52.6%	56.5%	45.9%
Failures:
Change of priorities…	30.8	31.4	31.5	28.9	28.8	21.7	22.6	18.6	13.5	12.2	12.6
Major boat failures	17.8	17.1	16.3	15.7	15.0	14.5	13.1	12.5	12.3	12.2	13.8
Loss of vessel	16.5	15.7	14.1	12.5	11.3	11.0	9.8	9.4	8.2	7.5	9.7
Injury, illness, …	26.0	25.7	25.6	24.6	20.0	17.1	15.1	14.6	11.8	10.2	15.4
subtotal	91.0%	90.0%	87.5%	81.7%	75.0%	64.1%	60.5%	55.1%	45.8%	42.0%	51.4%
Catastrophes:
Major disability	1.20	1.03	0.96	0.92	0.89	0.83	0.75	0.063	0.62	0.61	1.02
Death, non-maritime	0.50	0.43	0.40	0.31	0.25	0.23	0.22	0.21	0.21	0.20	0.71
Death, maritime	1.75	1.49	1.3	1.17	1.06	0.98	0.86	0.73	0.72	0.61	0.92
subtotal	3.5%	2.9%	2.7%	2.4%	2.2%	2.0%	1.8%	1.6%	1.5%	1.4%	2.7%
success: catastrophe	62:38	71:29	79:21	87:13	91:09	94:06	95:05	97:03	97:03	98:02	95:05

 

 

 

Percentages for "C" Level Preparation

 

"C" level represents generally adequate training and preparation for long-distance voyaging.

 

Outcome vs. Age	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	21	30	70
Successes:
Full success	0.15	0.3	0.78	2.7	6.0	13.0	18.0	24.0	31.0	35.0	20.5
success with assist	0.08	0.31	0.5	0.95	2.4	2.7	2.8	2.7	2.5	1.8	2.8
" " w stop &/or assist	0.15	0.57	1.3	2.5	3.4	4.6	4.8	4.8	4.6	4.2	6.4
Success with re-start	0.25	0.7	1.5	2.7	4.2	5.3	5.1	5.0	4.5	4.4	6.2
Non-solo completion	0.40	0.52	0.60	0.75	0.75	0.95	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.5
subtotal	1.0%	2.4%	4.6%	9.6%	16.8%	26.6^	31.6%	37.4%	43.6%	46.4%	37.4%
Failures:
Legal action/arrest	93.0	71.0	55.0	41.0	22.2	14.3	7.5	4.3	2.7	1.6	2.3
Change of priorities…	3.6	6.9	11.6	14.7	22.5	20.6	23.0	21.5	20.3	20.5	19.0
Major boat failures	3.4	5.4	8.0	10.0	12.4	12.8	12.7	12.3	12.4	12.5	14.0
Loss of vessel	3.2	5.0	6.8	7.98	9.4	9.5	9.3	9.0	8.1	7.6	9.7
Injury, illness, …	5.1	8.3	12.7	15.3	15.0	14.5	14.2	14.0	11.5	10.0	15.1
subtotal	98.3%	96.6%	94.1%	88.9%	91.5%	71.7%	66.7%	61.1%	54.9%	52.2%	60.1%
Catastrophes:
Major disability	0.24	0.36	0.48	0.59	0.71	0.72	0.70	0.61	0.6	0.6	1.0
Death, non-maritime	0.10	0.15	0.20	0.20	0.20	0.20	0.20	0.20	0.20	0.20	0.70
Death, maritime	0.35	0.52	0.65	0.75	0.85	0.86	0.82	0.75	0.71	0.60	0.90
subtotal	0.7%	1.0%	1.3%	1.5%	1.8%	1.8%	1.7%	1.6%	1.5%	1.4%	2.6%
success: catastrophe	59:41	70:30	78:22	86:14	90:10	94:06	95:05	96:04	97:03	97:03	93:07

 

 

Percentages for "C" Level Preparation Excluding Possibility of Legal Action

 

Outcome vs. Age	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	21	30	70
Successes:
Full success	0.9	1.0	1.7	4.6	7.7	15.2	19.5	25.1	31.8	35.6	21.0
success with assist	0.5	1.1	1.1	1.6	3.1	3.2	3.0	2.8	2.6	1.8	2.9
" " w stop &/or assist	0.9	2.0	2.9	4.2	4.4	5.4	5.1	5.0	4.7	4.3	6.6
Success with re-start	1.5	2.4	3.2	4.6	5.4	6.2	5.5	5.2	4.6	4.5	6.3
Non-solo completion	2.4	1.8	1.3	1.3	1.0	1.1	1.1	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.5
subtotal	6.1%	8.3%	10.2%	16.3%	21.5%	31.0%	34.2%	39.0%	44.8%	47.2%	38.2%
Failures:
Change of priorities…	20.0	23.6	25.7	24.9	28.9	24.0	24.9	22.5	20.8	20.8	19.4
Major boat failures	20.0	18.6	17.8	17.0	16.0	14.9	13.7	12.9	12.7	12.7	14.3
Loss of vessel	18.8	17.2	15.1	13.3	12.0	11.01	10.1	9.4	8.3	7.7	9.9
Injury, illness, …	29.9	28.7	28.3	25.9	19.3	16.9	15.3	14.6	11.8	10.2	15.5
subtotal	89.9%	88.2%	86.8%	81.1%	76.2%	67.0%	64.0%	59.4%	53.7%	51.4%	59.1%
Catastrophes:
Major disability	1.41	1.24	1.07	1.00	0.91	0.84	0.76	0.64	0.62	0.61	1.02
Death, non-maritime	0.59	0.52	0.44	0.34	0.26	0.23	0.22	0.21	0.21	0.20	0.72
Death, maritime	2.06	1.79	1.44	1.27	1.09	1.0	0.89	0.78	0.73	0.61	0.92
subtotal	4.1%	3.6%	3.0%	2.6%	2.3%	2.1%	1.9%	1.6%	1.6%	1.4%	2.7%

 

 

 

Percentages for "D" Level Preparation

 

"D" level preparation has significant deficiencies for a voyage of this scope.

 

Outcome vs. Age	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	21	30	70
Successes:
Full success	0.10	0.25	0.65	2.5	4.0	7.0	9.0	10.0	11.0	12.0	10.0
success with assist	0.07	0.30	0.5	0.8	2.0	2.3	2.4	2.4	2.3	1.8	2.7
" " w stop &/or assist	0.14	0.38	1.08	2.1	3.3	4.1	4.3	4.3	4.2	4.0	6.1
Success, major re-start	0.20	0.52	1.10	2.48	3.9	4.7	4.8	4.7	4.4	4.2	5.8
Non-solo completion	0.24	0.47	0.57	0.72	0.75	0.85	0.9	0.9	0.9	0.9	1.4
subtotal	0.8%	1.9%	3.9%	8.6	14.0	19.0	21.4%	22.3%	22.8%	22.9%	26.0%
Failures:
Legal action/arrest	87.0	75.0	62.0	50.0	25.0	16.0	7.8	4.4	2.75	1.7	2.5
Change of priorities…	2.0	4.5	7.6	9.6	19.5	22.5	28.7	32.2	36.0	38.8	23.8
Major boat failures	3.2	5.9	8.6	10.75	15.0	15.8	15.6	15.4	15.0	14.5	17.0
Loss of vessel	2.6	4.7	6.5	7.45	9.69	10.2	10.1	9.7	9.4	9.0	10.02
Injury, illness, …	3.9	7.1	10.1	12.0	15.0	14.6	14.6	14.4	12.5	11.6	17.7
subtotal	98.7%	97.1%	94.8%	89.7%	84.2%	79.2%	76.8%	76.1%	75.6%	75.6%	71.2%
Catastrophes:
Major disability	0.21	0.37	0.50	0.58	0.80	0.77	0.74	0.64	0.62	0.65	1.07
Death, non-maritime	0.09	0.15	0.19	0.20	0.21	0.21	0.21	0.21	0.21	0.21	0.72
Death, maritime	0.29	0.50	0.62	0.72	0.86	0.87	0.84	0.77	0.74	0.64	0.98
subtotal	0.6%	1.0%	1.3%	1.5%	1.9%	1.9%	1.8%	1.6%	1.6%	1.5%	2.8%
success: catastrophe	56:44	65:35	75:25	85:15	88:12	91:09	02:08	93:07	94:06	94:06	90:10

 

 

Percentages for "D" Level Preparation Excluding Possibility of Legal Action

 

Outcome vs. Age	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	21	30	70
Successes:
Full success	0.8	1.0	1.7	5.0	5.3	8.3	9.8	10.5	11.3	12.2	10.3
success with assist	0.5	1.2	1.3	1.6	2.7	2.7	2.6	2.5	2.4	1.8	2.8
" " w stop &/or assist	1.1	1.5	2.8	4.2	4.4	4.9	4.7	4.5	4.3	4.1	6.3
Success, major re-start	1.5	2.1	2.9	5.0	5.2	5.6	5.2	4.9	4.5	4.3	6.0
Non-solo completion	1.9	1.9	1.5	1.4	1.0	1.0	1.0	.9	.9	.9	1.4
subtotal	5.8%	7.7%	10.3%	17.2%	18.6%	22.6%	23.2%	23.3%	23.4%	23.3%	26.7%
Failures:
Change of priorities…	15.0	17.8	19.9	19.4	26	26.4	31.1	33.7	37.0	39.5	24.4
Major boat failures	24.6	23.6	22.6	21.5	20.0	18.8	16.9	16.1	15.4	14.8	17.4
Loss of vessel	20.1	18.6	17.11	14.9	12.9	12.2	11.0	10.2	9.7	9.2	10.5
Injury, illness, …	29.9	28.2	26.6	24.0	20.0	17.4	15.8	15.1	12.9	11.8	18.2
subtotal	89.6%	88.2%	86.2%	79.8%	78.9%	74.9%	74.8&	75.0%	74.9%	75.2%	70.5%
Catastrophes:
Major disability	1.62	1.48	1.32	1.16	1.07	0.92	0.80	0.67	0.64	0.66	1.1
Death, non-maritime	0.69	0.60	0.50	0.40	0.28	0.25	0.23	0.22	0.22	0.21	0.74
Death, maritime	2.23	2.0	1.63	1.44	1.15	1.04	0.091	0.81	0.76	0.65	1.01
subtotal	4.5%	4.1%	3.4%	3.0%	2.5%	2.2%	1.9%	1.7%	1.6%	1.5%	2.8%
success: catastrophe	56:44	65:35	75:25	85:15	88:12	91;09	92:08	93:07	94:06	94:06	90:10

 

 

 

Percentages for "F" Level Preparation

 

"F" level is landlubberly and manifestly unsafe and inadequate.

 

Outcome vs. Age	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	21	30	70
Successes:
Full success	0.08	0.18	0.46	0.80	1.4	2.0	2.4	2.7	2.9	3.0	2.5
success with assist	0.03	0.07	0.18	0.30	0.45	0.60	0.65	0.70	0.75	0.80	0.65
" " w stop &/or assist	0.09	0.18	0.50	0.90	1.50	1.90	2.20	2.40	2.50	2.60	2.3
Success, major re-start	0.15	0.29	0.61	0.87	1.35	1.70	1.94	2.10	2.16	2.20	1.90
Non-solo completion	0.15	0.24	0.46	0.61	0.85	0.95	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.52
subtotal	0.5%	1.0%	2.2%	3.5%	5.6%	7.2%	8.2%	8.9%	9.3%	9.6%	8.9%
Failures:
Legal action/arrest	90.0	82.0	64.0	50.0	28.0	17.0	9.0	5.0	3.0	1.9	2.8
Change of priorities…	0.5	1.6	4.0	7.0	13.2	17.7	22.2	25.7	27.6	28.6	18.2
Major boat failures	3.1	5.6	11.0	15.1	20.6	22.06	23.8	23.8	23.7	23.7	25.0
Loss of vessel	2.3	3.8	7.1	9.0	12.2	13.3	14.0	14.0	13.9	13.8	17.0
Injury, illness, …	3.1	5.3	10.4	13.7	18.5	2.03	20.8	20.7	20.6	20.5	24.2
subtotal	99.0%	98.2%	96.3%	94.8%	92.5%	90.8%	89.8%	89.2%	88.8%	88.5%	87.2%
Catastrophes:
Major disability	0.20	0.31	0.56	0.68	0.88	0.88	0.84	0.81	0.8	0.8	1.65
Death, non-maritime	0.09	0.14	0.23	0.23	0.24	0.24	024	0.23	0.23	0.23	0.88
Death, maritime	0.25	0.41	0.70	0.81	0.88	0.93	0.93	0.89	0.86	0.86	1.4
subtotal	0.5%	0.9%	1.5%	1.7%	2.0%	2.1%	2.0%	1.9%	1.9%	1.9%	3.9%
success: catastrophe	48:52	53:47	60:40	67:33	74:26	78:22	80:20	82:18	83:17	84:16	69:31

 

 

Percentages for "F" Level Preparation Excluding Legal Action

 

Outcome vs. Age	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	21	30	70
Successes:
Full success	0.8	1.0	1.3	1.6	1.9	2.4	2.6	2.8	3.0	3.1	2.6
success with assist	0.3	0.4	0.5	0.6	0.6	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.8	0.8	0.7
" " w stop &/or assist	0.9	1.0	1.4	1.8	2.1	2.3	2.4	2.5	2.6	2.7	2.4
Success, major re-start	1.5	1.6	1.7	1.7	1.9	2.1	2.1	2.2	2.2	2.2	2.0
Non-solo completion	1.5	1.3	1.3	1.2	1.2	1.1	1.1	1.1	1.0	1.0	1.6
subtotal	5.0%	5.3%	6.1%	7.0%	7.7%	8.6%	9.0%	9.4%	9.6%	9.8%	9.1%
Failures:
Change of priorities…	5.1	8.3	10.7	14.0	18.3	21.3	24.4	27.0	28.5	29.2	18.7
Major boat failures	31.0	30.8	30.6	30.2	28.6	27.2	26.2	25.1	24.4	24.2	25.7
Loss of vessel	23.0	21.1	19.7	18.0	16.9	16.0	15.4	14.7	14.3	14.1	17.5
Injury, illness, …	30.5	29.6	28.8	27.4	25.7	24.4	22.9	21.8	21.2	20.9	24.9
subtotal	89.6%	89.9%	89.7%	89.6%	89.5%	88.9%	88.8%	88.6%	88.5%	88.3%	86.8%
Catastrophes:
Major disability	2.00	1.72	1.56	1.36	1.22	1.06	0.92	0.85	0.82	0.82	1.70
Death, non-maritime	0.90	0.78	0.64	0.46	0.33	0.29	0.26	0.24	0.24	0.23	0.91
Death, maritime	2.50	2.28	1.94	1.62	1.22	1.12	1.02	0.94	0.89	0.88	1.44
subtotal	5.4%	4.8%	4.1%	3.4%	2.8%	2.5%	2.2%	2.0%	1.9%	1.9%	4.0%
success: catastrophe	48:52	53:47	60:40	67:33	74:26	78:22	80:20	82:18	83:17	84:16	69:31

 

 

 

 

 

Summary Comparison of Odds for 13 and 16-year olds by level of preparation, assuming no governmental interference with a voyage.

 

Outcome vs. Age	13A	13B	13C	13D	13F		16A	16B	16C	16D	16F
Successes:
Full success	3.8	2.0	1.7	1.7	1.3		24.0	17.3	15.2	8.3	2.4
Partial success	8.0	6.6	7.2	7.0	6.9		13.0	15.4	14.8	13.2	6.2
Non-solo completion	1.9	1.2	1.3	1.5	1.3		1.0	1.2	1.1	1.0	1.1
subtotal	13.6%	9.8%	10.2%	10.3%	6.1%		38.1%	33.8%	31.0%	22.6%	8.6%
Failures:
Change of priorities…	30.4	31.5	25.7	19.9	10.7		20.6	21.7	24.0	26.4	21.3
Major boat failures	15.6	16.3	17.8	22.6	30.6		13.5	14.5	14.9	18.8	27.2
Loss of vessel	12.9	14.1	15.1	17.11	19.7		9.9	11.0	11.01	12.2	16.0
Injury, illness, …	25.0	25.6	28.3	26.6	28.8		16.0	17.1	16.9	17.4	24.4
subtotal	83.8%	87.5%	86.8%	86.2%	89.7%		59.9%	64.1%	67.0%	74.9%	88.9%
Catastrophes:
Major disability	0.90	0.96	1.07	1.32	1.56		0.82	0.83	0.84	0.92	1.06
Death, non-maritime	0.38	0.40	0.44	0.50	0.64		0.23	0.23	0.23	0.25	0.29
Death, maritime	1.25	1.3	1.44	1.63	1.94		0.97	0.98	1.0	1.04	1.12
subtotal	2.5%	2.7%	3.0%	3.4%	4.1%		2.0%	2.0%	2.1%	2.2%	2.5%
success: catastrophe	84:16	79:21	78:22	75:25	60:40		95:05	94:06	94:06	91.09	78:22

 

 

Changing the odds: What happens when a 13-year old completes two years of additional preparation

 

A young teen who trains for two years and increases her or his readiness by one level of preparation is more than twice as likely to succeed at the circumnavigation, decreases her risk or ordinary failure by 14%, and decreases her risk of catastrophic failure by 26%.

 

The table below assumes no legal intervention to prevent the voyage. Legal intervention would have about a 55% chance of preventing the voyage of the thirteen-year-old but only about a 20% chance of stopping the better-prepared fifteen-year-old.

 

Outcome vs. Age/Prep	13C		15B		Change
Successes:
Full success	1.7		8.6		+418%
Partial success	7.2		13.3		+82%
Non-solo completion	1.3		1.0		-37%
subtotal	10.2%		22.8%		+123%
Failures:
Change of priorities…	25.7		28.8		+12%
Major boat failures	17.8		15.0		-16%
Loss of boat	15.1		11.3		-26%
Injury, illness, …	28.3		20.0		-23%
subtotal	86.8%		75.0%		-14%
Catastrophes:
Major disability	1.07		0.89		-17%
Death, non-maritime	0.44		0.25		-44%
Death, maritime	1.44		1.06		-26%
subtotal	3.0%		2.2%		-26%
success: catastrophe	78:22		91:09		+185%