Will the levee break?

We got in a bit of sailing on both Saturday and Sunday in spite of cool weather. Saturday's breezes varied from very light to moderate; Sunday's zephyrs were mostly lighter, but steadier.

Elephant Butte Lake continues to rise, reaching an elevation of 4,347.20 feet above benchmark with 603,046 acre feet of water and about 22 square miles of lake surface as on Monday, 12 noon, March 5, 2007. It's up an inch and 1,149 a.f. in 24 hours and 2.4 inches and 2,873 a.f. in 71 hours. With spring irrigation scheduled to begin soon, the Butte will probably remain level for the next few weeks, drop a couple of feet in April, then continue to rise in May and throughout most of June.

We wouldn't mind having a bit more water, but the near-normal snowpack is actually good news for sailors in Colorado, New Mexico, and west Texas.



Snow Water Equivalent Percent of Average for each basin in New Mexico, by basin
86% RIO CHAMA RIVER BASIN
84% UPPER RIO GRANDE BASIN
116% SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAIN RANGE BASINS
105% JEMEZ RIVER BASIN
84% SAN FRANCISCO RIVER BASIN
88% GILA RIVER BASIN
132% MIMBRES RIVER BASIN
100% PECOS RIVER BASIN
79% SAN JUAN RIVER HEADWATERS
76% ANIMAS RIVER BASIN
159% CIMARRON RIVER BASIN
112% ZUNI/BLUEWATER RIVER BASIN
119% RIO HONDO BASIN
Colorado basins feeding into New Mexico:
91% Upper Rio Grande Basin, Colorado
76% San Miguel, San Juan in s.w. Colorado


The daily operations plan for Elephant Butte Lake predicts something like a one-foot decrease in lake surface elevation for March, three more feet of decrease in April, then a foot of gain in May and more than two feet in June, with the lake recovering to about where it is now before summer irrigation again depletes it.

Daily Operations Plan
31 March, 4346.08' elev., 581,726 a.f., 27,000 a.f. in, 29,000 a.f. out
30 April, 4,343.17' elev., 546,785 a.f., 31,000 a.f. in, 47,000 a.f. out
31 May, 4,343.91' elev., 556,943 a.f., 70,000 a.f. in, 62,000 a.f. out
(18 June, 4,346.46' elev., 592,557 a.f.)
30 June, 4,345.63' elev., 580,8832 a.f., 73,000 a.f. in, 69,000 a.f. out


However, this forecast is conservative. Based on the snowpack, the Butte should receive at least the 400,000 or so acre feet (most of which has been promised to farmers for irrigation) or even a near-normal 650,000 a.f., yet, instead, the lake is only predicted to receive around 200,000 a.f., only about 30% of normal runoff.

If the lake gets 400,000 a.f. (about 5/8 of normal), yet discharges no more than projected this spring, then it should rise in May and June to about 12 feet above its present level, reaching an elevation of 4,359.5' feet above benchmark, just about 47 feet below spillway. And, it's quite easily possible that the lake get 500,000 a.f. (3/4 of normal) and rise to something like 4,367'.

These increases would give cruisers the chance to explore many of their old favorite coves during the spring and summer and enjoy a lake with at least half again as much surface area as now.

Summer irrigation would then take water away, but if irrigators take 50,000 less a.f. then the lake receives from runoff and summer rains, then the irrigation season would end in late September with 650,000 a.f. in the lake and an elevation of 4,350'. Shallow-draft boats could pass through a five-foot deep passage west of Long Point during the Sunrise Regatta on September 22nd. The lake would likely rise during the rest of the fall by several feet, winding up at an elevation of 4,355' to 4,358' by the end of the year, some ten feet higher than at the start of the year.