Thursday, June 08, 2006

June 7, 2006, Lake Update

June 7, 2006, Update

Lake Conditions:

Heron Lake is at 7142.55 feet elevation, with 189,848 acre feet. It is up 5" and 1,605 acre feet in 72 hours. Heron is up 12 feet and 40,000 acre feet since the spring low point. The Azotea Tunnel is flowing at 216 to 386 cfs; Willow Creek at 225-353 cfs. This summer Heron will perhaps receive another 8,000 - 11,000 a.f. but maybe give up a similar amount for irrigation. Heron is now the third largest lake in New Mexico, with 65% as much water as the Butte.

Elephant Butte Lake, 4320.92 elevation above benchmark, 288,728 acre feet.It is down 9 inches and 7,637 acre feet in 72 hours and down about 15 feet since the spring high point. Water is flowing out of the dam at about 1,500 cfs.

1,526,818 a.f. Navajo Lake
10,171 a.f. Costilla
159,646 a.f. Abiquiu
111,451 a.f. El Vado
49,949 a.f. Cochiti
134,164 a.f. Conchas
36,691 a.f. Eagle Nest
47,788 a.f. Santa Rosa
9,389 a.f. Sumner
15,251 a.f. Brantley

Bill R. and Rich S. (who should be on his way back from San Carlos) could probably help us figure out where things are underwater and what junk we should be pulling off the bottom and how to make sure the new and old marina parts stay aligned.

It would be good to have a work party at 9:00 followed by a meeting at 11:00 Saturday, a fun race Saturday afternoon, and a potluck dinner (with the club contributing burgers and dogs and fixings) Saturday at 7:00.

Because we didn't succeed in having a meeting during Memorial Day weekend, I hope we can have one at 11:00 a.m. Saturday. With luck, and more boats now in the marina, we can have more activities and get more people to attend. If people can't make it, then our next-best plan would probably be to discuss things via e-mail and phone.

It's been proposed (Rich S.) that we offer a monthly rate with no docksitting requirement and no seniority rights to fill in empty marina spaces. The price would probably need to be low enough to be competitive with marinas at other lakes, but high enough that all of our members who pay for the whole season plus contribute docksitting aren't shortchanged. With that in mind, something like $175 tax-included (about $160 before tax) might be reasonable. Someone needs to make a motion if this sounds good.

Gangway - - someone who knows more perhaps can decide whether the lake will get high enough to make it feasible to set up the long gangway. Ideas?


Marina - - move or stay?
We also need to get more info on how willing the parks and reclamation folks are to help us if we decide to move the marina. Also needed is better information on how much more runoff we might get.

So far, it seems likely (all of these are educated guesses at best and the numbers are terribly uncertain) that if we leave the marina in place, next spring it would be stranded on dry land about 8 feet above the lake level.

(Data/assumptions: Heron went down to 150,000 acre feet this spring, received about 40,000 acre feet and may get 10,000 more from runoff, will perhaps give up 15,000 for irrigation this summer, 30,000 more the rest of the calendar year, and 50,000 more before next spring's runoff, leaving the lake with 105,000 acre feet at next spring's low point. At about 125 kaf water would reach the marina; at 150kaf most of the marina would be in 5 feet of water and partially afloat; at 170,000kaf the marina would be fully usable.)

We would need to receive and keep about 65% of average runoff in order to float and open the marina at all in spring 2007 (A dock could be used with 60% runoff), and about 70% for most deep-keel boats to use the ramp. With 80% of normal runoff, we would be reasonably assured of a good summer season. The marina would probably have to open late in the season (Memorial Day weekend or early June) unless there's a very strong early runoff.

In order to prevent parts of the marina from touching bottom again in the spring of 2008, the 2007 runoff would have to achieve a near-record 165% of normal.

If the marina remains in place and next year is relatively dry like this year, with runoff only around 50% or so, then we'll be out of business for the year 2007 and in the year 2008 would need around 120% runoff in order to have any season. A dry 2007 would make it probable that the marina is out of business in 2008 as well.

Discussion? Ideas? Suggestions? Plans? Comments?

Richard K. writes:
Pat et al.: As of now I'm planning to up Friday evening for dusk sail. Saturday morning would be good time to try out the new winch and welding job.

The yellow lines attached to the old A-dock undertruss are a hazard to navigation and hopefully we can get something to come up without breaking something or hurting someone.
Does anyone (Bill??) know what became of the cables that we removed from the old A-dock west end winches? Pete Barlow and I tied them to a buoy in late April, and they were tied to the buoy before the new A-dock went into place. Did they attach the west end new A-dock winch cables to the old mushroom anchor cables? Or did they drop those cables and attached their winch cables to the new 4500 lb concrete anchors? I don't see the buoy near the end of A-dock where it was before the new A-dock went in place.

I mention this because it seems that the new A-dock and the pavilion seem to be drifting eastward with respect to the main walkway and B and C docks. It seems to me that the new A-dock might need to be attached to the old mushroom anchors somehow to keep the prevailing winds from blowing A-dock and the pavilion back to shore. I'm not sure if the placement of the new concrete anchors is right to achieve this. (The new west end-cables seem to be more N-S of A-dock rather than out to the west.)

There are 2 mushroom anchors to the SW of A-dock, one down in the channel that was replaced in circa 2002 or 2003 by work party headed by Mike Grady, and another on the south side of the channel that Rich Strassia said he placed when the south shore deadman anchor line had to be removed for safety reasons when the lake went low. (I'm not sure that we need the second anchor, but it may provide a good backup.) It's my understanding that there is another mushroom anchor to the NW of A-dock that may also serve as an anchor for B or C docks, not sure about this as I have no direct experience with any of the B or C-dock anchors.
Any information about the old A-dock anchor line status would be helpful. See you on the water.

Thanks. -- Rich
posted on Wednesday, June 07,


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