Thursday, August 21, 2008

Olympic Sailing Performance

Way to go -- we're number whatever!

Top Countries by Overall Sailing Team Performance at the Olympics:

1. Great Britain

2. Lithuania

3. Australia

4. Spain

5. Denmark

6. Netherlands

7. New Zealand

8. France

9. United States

10. Slovenia


How was this subjective ranking made? It considered not only medals, but also how well each team performed overall, including the ratio of athletes participating to medals won and the average placement of each team in each fleet. With about 400 sailors at the Olympics, and 33 medals to be won (11 of each color), that’s about one medal for every 12 competitors. If a small team gets as many medals as a much larger team, it’s fair to say that the small team has outperformed the big team.



Why is Lithuania up there? Well, one Lithuanian sailed – and she medaled. We could say that Lithuania had by far the best average team performance if you don’t mind the apples and oranges (and statistical validity) issues of comparing countries that entered one sailor with those that had a full team of 18 sailors. Lithuania was the only country with only one competitor to medal in sailing; all other medal-winning countries competed in at least four events.


One other caveat: The 49er results might change as a result of a redress hearing regarding Denmark’s use of a borrowed boat.


If you don’t like lumping teams who participated in most events with those that participated in few or only one, here’s a breakdown.



Top Olympic Sailing Performance for Teams Participating in 6–11 Events:

1. Great Britain (four golds, a silver, a bronze, by far the best overall placing)

2. Australia (two golds, a silver, well above average overall placing)

3. Spain (a gold, a silver, well above average overall placing)

4. Netherlands (two silvers, well above average overall placing)

5. New Zealand (a gold, well above average overall placing)

6. France (a silver, two bronzes, well above average overall placing)

7. United States (a gold, a silver, near average overall placing)

8. Brazil (a bronze, a silver, above-average overall placing)

9. Argentina (a bronze, average overall placing)

10. Germany (a bronze, above average overall placing)


Great Britain was amazingly consistent: None – not a single one – of her 11 teams placed in the bottom half of their events, with average placement in the 18th percentile (the average British boat placed 18 out of 100).

Britain was almost always a medal threat, would never miss making it to a medal race, and always had a final placement in the top 10 for each event. Given the sometimes random or challenging nature of conditions at the Olympic site, that’s a bit of an astonishing performance. That lottery money seems to be doing Team GBR some good; this is the third Olympiad in which GBR has been the top sailing medal winner.

Australia, which is also has a well-funded team, did quite nicely despite some inconsistencies. Team AUS had six above-average placements, one right at average, three below average, and one event not entered.


By contrast with GBR, the USA was hugely inconsistent, with an average in the 54th percentile and final placements all over the map: 1 of 28 (Anna Tunnicliffe was the first US woman sailor to win a medal in 20 years), 2 of 26, 6 of 19, 13 of 29, 7 of 15 – just 5 of 11 teams finished in the top half of their fleets – then 25 of 43, 12 of 19, 11 of 16, 26 of 35, 26 of 27, and 15 of 15 a.k.a. d.f.l.

The USA’s Star and Tornado sail “experiments” and overall weakness in boardsailing particularly hurt the team results. Andrew Campbell was hurt by two big penalties in the men’s Laser regatta. A late-regatta equipment breakdown in the 49er dropped that team down to sixth overall. The USA Yngling team had disappointing results after having been dominant elsewhere in their event prior to the Olympics. The US 470 men and women started slow and never quite caught up. It’s a bit embarrassing for the country that invented boardsailing (windsurfing) to come out in the bottom fifth of the results (averaged across the men’s and women’s events), but perhaps the results show what an international success windsurfing has become. Team USA is relatively young and inexperienced with 14 of its 18 members first-time Olympians.


China’s performance was somewhat similar in its inconsistency to the USA’s, but the Chinese had almost opposite strengths and weaknesses, performing very well in the Laser Radial and windsurfing events, but placing poorly in the 470, 49er, and Finn.



And,
Top Olympic Sailing Performance for Teams Participating in 1–5 Events:



1. Lithuania (one sailor, one silver medal)

2. Denmark (a gold and slightly above average placement in their five events)

3. Slovenia (a silver and above-average overall placement in their four events)

4. Israel (a bronze and high overall placement in their five events)

5. Hong Kong (no medals, but high overall placement in their two events)



Formula: (weighted ratio of athletes to medals [gold=1.5, silver=1, bronze=0.5]) plus (0.10 * average of positions in fleets normalized to fleet of 100 boats) minus ( 2.0 * weighted medals won [same weighting as above]). So, Great Britain, with 4 gold medals, a silver, and a bronze, scored 2.40 + 1.8 – 15 = –10.80.




All countries ranked for relative performance:

No.

No. entr.

Country

Athletes

Gold

Silver

Bronze

Medals

Wtd. ratio

Avg pos’n

W +1ap -2w

1

11

Great Britain

18

4

1

1

6

2.40

18

-10.80

2

1

Lithuania

1

0

1

0

1

1.00

07

-0.30

3

10

Australia

17

2

1

0

3

4.25

35

-0.25

4

10

Spain

16

1

1

0

2

6.40

36

5.00

5

5

Denmark

6

1

0

0

1

4.00

44

5.40

6

7

Netherlands

12

0

2

0

2

6.00

35

5.50

7

7

New Zealand

9

1

0

0

1

6.00

29

5.90

8

11

France

18

0

1

2

3

9.00

33

7.30

9

11

United States

18

1

1

0

2

7.20

54

7.60

10

4

Slovenia

6

0

1

0

1

6.00

41

8.10

11

8

Brazil

12

0

1

1

2

8.00

40

9.00

12

7

Argentina

10

0

0

1

1

6.67

50

10.67

13

6

Germany

12

0

0

1

1

8.00

40

11.00

14

7

Sweden

11

0

0

1

1

7.33

46

11.33

15

11

China

18

1

0

1

2

9.00

64

11.40

16

8

Greece

12

0

0

1

1

8.00

45

11.50

17

5

Israel

7

0

0

1

1

10.00

34

12.40

18

2

Hong Kong

2

0

0

0

0

99

25

12.40

19

11

Italy

18

0

1

1

2

12.00

42

13.20

20

5

Portugal

8

0

0

0

0

99

35

13.4

21

1

Uruguay

1

0

0

0

0

99

40

13.9

22

1

Bulgaria

1

0

0

0

0

99

44

14.3

22

8

Poland

11

0

0

0

0

99

44

14.3

24

1

Virgin Islands

1

0

0

0

0

99

49

14.8

25

6

Japan

9

0

0

0

0

99

53

15.2

26

2

Belgium

3

0

0

0

0

99

54

15.3

27

6

Norway

9

0

0

0

0

99

56

15.5

28

4

Cyprus

4

0

0

0

0

99

57

15.6

28

4

Ukraine

6

0

0

0

0

99

57

15.6

28

9

Canada

14

0

0

0

0

99

57

15.6

31

6

Austria

11

0

0

0

0

99

58

15.7

31

6

Switzerland

9

0

0

0

0

99

58

15.7

31

7

Croatia

10

0

0

0

0

99

58

15.7

34

1

Chile

1

0

0

0

0

99

60

15.9

34

3

Mexico

3

0

0

0

0

99

60

15.9

36

3

Czech Rep

4

0

0

0

0

99

68

16.7

36

3

Hungary

3

0

0

0

0

99

68

16.7

36

3

Korea

4

0

0

0

0

99

68

16.7

39

7

Russia

10

0

0

0

0

99

69

16.8

40

4

Ireland

6

0

0

0

0

99

72

17.1

41

2

Thailand

2

0

0

0

0

99

73

17.2

43

1

Seychelles

1

0

0

0

0

99

74

17.3

43

6

Finland

9

0

0

0

0

99

74

17.3

44

2

Estonia

1

0

0

0

0

99

75

17.4

45

5

Turkey

6

0

0

0

0

99

76

17.5

46

1

Guatamala

1

0

0

0

0

99

77

17.6

46

1

Indonesia

1

0

0

0

0

99

77

17.6

48

3

Belarus

4

0

0

0

0

99

78

17.7

49

1

Rep S Africa

1

0

0

0

0

99

80

17.9

50

1

Paraguay

1

0

0

0

0

99

86

18.5

50

1

Slovak Rep

1

0

0

0

0

99

86

18.5

52

4

Singapore

6

0

0

0

0

99

87

18.6

53

1

India

1

0

0

0

0

99

88

18.7

53

1

Malaysia

1

0

0

0

0

99

88

18.7

55

1

Chinese Taipei

1

0

0

0

0

99

89

18.8

56

3

Venezuela

3

0

0

0

0

99

91

19.0

57

1

Dominican R

1

0

0

0

0

99

93

19.2

57

1

Peru

1

0

0

0

0

99

93

19.2

59

1

Luxembourg

1

0

0

0

0

99

95

19.4

60

1

United Arab E

1

0

0

0

0

99

98

19.7

61

1

Barbados

1

0

0

0

0

99

100

19.9

61

1

Columbia

1

0

0

0

0

99

100

19.9




Countries ranked by number of events entered; 6-11 Events:



No.

No. entr.

Country

Athletes

Gold

Silver

Bronze

Medals

Wtd. ratio

Avg pos’n

W +1ap -2w

1

11

Great Britain

18

4

1

1

6

2.40

18

-10.80

2

10

Australia

17

2

1

0

3

4.25

35

-0.25

3

10

Spain

16

1

1

0

2

6.40

36

5.00

4

7

Netherlands

12

0

2

0

2

6.00

35

5.50

5

7

New Zealand

9

1

0

0

1

6.00

29

5.90

6

11

France

18

0

1

2

3

9.00

33

7.30

7

11

United States

18

1

1

0

2

7.20

54

7.60

8

8

Brazil

12

0

1

1

2

8.00

40

9.00

9

7

Argentina

10

0

0

1

1

6.67

50

10.67

10

6

Germany

12

0

0

1

1

8.00

40

11.00

11

7

Sweden

11

0

0

1

1

7.33

46

11.33

12

11

China

18

1

0

1

2

9.00

64

11.40

13

8

Greece

12

0

0

1

1

8.00

45

11.50

14

11

Italy

18

0

1

1

2

12.00

42

13.20

15

8

Poland

11

0

0

0

0

99

44

14.3

16

6

Japan

9

0

0

0

0

99

53

15.2

17

6

Norway

9

0

0

0

0

99

56

15.5

18

9

Canada

14

0

0

0

0

99

57

15.6

19

7

Croatia

10

0

0

0

0

99

58

15.7

19

6

Austria

11

0

0

0

0

99

58

15.7

19

6

Switzerland

9

0

0

0

0

99

58

15.7

22

7

Russia

10

0

0

0

0

99

69

16.8

23

6

Finland

9

0

0

0

0

99

74

17.3



Countries ranked by number of events entered, 1-5 Events:

No.

No. entr.

Country

Athletes

Gold

Silver

Bronze

Medals

Wtd. ratio

Avg pos’n

W +1ap -2w

1

1

Lithuania

1

0

1

0

1

1.00

07

-0.30

2

5

Denmark

6

1

0

0

1

4.00

44

5.40

3

4

Slovenia

6

0

1

0

1

6.00

41

8.10

4

5

Israel

7

0

0

1

1

10.00

34

12.40

4

2

Hong Kong

2

0

0

0

0

99

25

12.40

6

5

Portugal

8

0

0

0

0

99

35

13.4

7

1

Uruguay

1

0

0

0

0

99

40

13.9

8

1

Bulgaria

1

0

0

0

0

99

44

14.3

9

1

Virgin Islands

1

0

0

0

0

99

49

14.8

10

2

Belgium

3

0

0

0

0

99

54

15.3

11

4

Cyprus

4

0

0

0

0

99

57

15.6

11

4

Ukraine

6

0

0

0

0

99

57

15.6

13

3

Mexico

3

0

0

0

0

99

60

15.9

12

1

Chile

1

0

0

0

0

99

60

15.9

15

3

Czech Rep

4

0

0

0

0

99

68

16.7

15

3

Hungary

3

0

0

0

0

99

68

16.7

15

3

Korea

4

0

0

0

0

99

68

16.7

18

4

Ireland

6

0

0

0

0

99

72

17.1

19

2

Thailand

2

0

0

0

0

99

73

17.2

20

1

Seychelles

1

0

0

0

0

99

74

17.3

21

2

Estonia

1

0

0

0

0

99

75

17.4

22

5

Turkey

6

0

0

0

0

99

76

17.5

23

1

Guatamala

1

0

0

0

0

99

77

17.6

23

1

Indonesia

1

0

0

0

0

99

77

17.6

25

3

Belarus

4

0

0

0

0

99

78

17.7

26

1

Rep S Africa

1

0

0

0

0

99

80

17.9

27

1

Paraguay

1

0

0

0

0

99

86

18.5

27

1

Slovak Rep

1

0

0

0

0

99

86

18.5

29

4

Singapore

6

0

0

0

0

99

87

18.6

30

1

India

1

0

0

0

0

99

88

18.7

30

1

Malaysia

1

0

0

0

0

99

88

18.7

32

1

Chinese Taipei

1

0

0

0

0

99

89

18.8

33

3

Venezuela

3

0

0

0

0

99

91

19.0

34

1

Dominican R

1

0

0

0

0

99

93

19.2

34

1

Peru

1

0

0

0

0

99

93

19.2

36

1

Luxembourg

1

0

0

0

0

99

95

19.4

37

1

United Arab E

1

0

0

0

0

99

98

19.7

38

1

Barbados

1

0

0

0

0

99

100

19.9

38

1

Columbia

1

0

0

0

0

99

100

19.9


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